At Synovia Digital, we investigate emerging technologies to stay aligned with an industry that evolves quickly. While the insights here are grounded in 2025 data and industry analysis, the CPG landscape can always shift as new tools, retail demands, and shopper behaviors emerge. Still, current trends give us a strong indication of how trade promotion optimization is transforming today.
Despite decades of investment, promotions remain one of the most unpredictable and expensive areas of CPG.
According to TELUS Agriculture & Consumer Goods (2025), inaccurate promo planning still leads to major stockouts, overstock, waste, and low ROI — especially in fast-moving categories.
Source: https://www.telus.com/agcg/en-ie/blog-resources/ai-trade-promotion
Promotions are complex because they involve:
- Multiple Retail Partners
- Dozens Of Channels And Pack Sizes
- Varying Price Elasticities
- Compressed Execution Timelines
- Inconsistent External Data
That complexity is exactly why AI is becoming the most important tool in modern trade promotion management (TPM).
AI Makes Uplift Prediction More Accurate
Traditional uplift forecasting often relies on intuition or historical repetition (“last year we did X, so this year we expect Y”).
But AI incorporates:
- POS Data
- Promo Types
- Competitor Activity
- Weather And Events
- Shopper Segmentation
- Channel Dynamics
A 2025 SR Analytics CPG review shows machine learning can significantly increase incremental volume accuracy while reducing cannibalization miscalculations.
Source: https://sranalytics.io/blog/ai-in-cpg-complete-guide/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
Better uplift forecasting = better inventory alignment + happier retailers + fewer costly errors.
AI Enables Dynamic Mid-Promo Adjustments
In 2025, more CPG companies began embracing real-time promo monitoring.
AI now detects when a promotion is:
- Overperforming
- Underperforming
- At Risk Due To Stock Delays
- Misaligned With Shopper Behavior
And it can recommend or trigger responses:
- Increase/Decrease Orders
- Adjust Replenishment Routes
- Modify Promo Depth Or Support
- Redirect Stock Across Channels
Infosys BPM’s 2024–2025 TPM research highlights that real-time analytics reduce emergency logistics and avoid lost promotional sales.
Sources: https://www.infosysbpm.com/blogs/retail-cpg-logistics/optimising-trade-promotions-with-ai-data-analytics.html
AI Connects Supply Chain With Commercial — Finally
One of the biggest challenges in CPG is that trade, category, and supply chain teams work in silos.
AI-based TPM platforms now integrate:
- Demand Forecasting
- Production Planning
- Inventory Levels
- Logistics Constraints
- Retailer Calendars
This alignment helps avoid the classic promo problem:
Great activation.
Terrible execution.
Empty shelves.
Bain & Company’s 2025 CPG report identifies cross-functional AI systems as essential for improving service levels during promotions.
Source: https://www.bain.com/insights/consumer-products-report-2025-reclaiming-relevance-in-the-gen-ai-era
AI Improves Promo ROI and Reduces Waste
As AI matures, CPGs are seeing improvements in:
- Incremental Sales Accuracy
- Stock Availability During Promotions
- Margin Contribution Per Promo
- Cost-To-Serve Visibility
- Reduction In Overproduction
- Increased Promo Success Rates
TELUS AGCG’s 2025 findings show AI-driven TPM can materially improve promotional profitability — especially where demand is volatile or product portfolios are large.
Promo reinvention isn’t theoretical anymore — it’s operational.
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Final Thoughts
Trade promotions won’t become easy overnight — they involve too many variables.
But AI is reinventing how CPG brands forecast, execute, and evaluate promotions.
The shift is clear:
From intuition to intelligence
From static plans to dynamic decisions
From isolated teams to integrated commercial + supply systems
At Synovia Digital, we see AI-enabled promotions as one of the clearest value levers for CPG heading into 2025 and beyond — transforming the way brands grow, collaborate, and serve shoppers.