Promo Planning in CPG: How AI Will (Probably) Transform Trade Spend in 2026

Promotions have long been a pivotal lever for consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies — but also one of the least predictable. With margins under pressure and consumer behaviour changing rapidly, brands are turning to artificial intelligence (AI) to move from tactical trade-spend to strategic growth investment. And by 2026? The game is set to change again.

What’s happening now (2025)

• According to industry benchmarking, CPG companies are increasing the number of trade-promotion projects tied to AI and advanced analytics. (Promotion Optimization Institute (POI) reports that Trade Promotion Management, optimisation and ROI capabilities are now core to digital strategies in CPG. State of the Industry – Promotion Optimization Institute
• AI adoption in the CPG sector is accelerating: one source finds that 71% of CPG leaders adopted AI in one business function by 2024-25, with trade promotion being one of the top-use cases. Consumer Products Report 2025: CPG Industry Outlook | Bain & Company
• According to Telus & TrueGradient Real-time decisioning and dynamic re-planning are becoming feasible, with conversational assistants and agent-based systems handling trade-promo inputs and recommending adjustments mid-campaign. 

What to expect in 2026

Here’s how things will probably shift in the next year:

1. Promotions become fully dynamic, not static campaigns

Promotions will no longer be locked down 8-12 weeks out and followed through until completion. Instead, AI systems will continuously monitor performance, competitor actions, shelf stock-outs, and social signals — and trigger adjustments mid-course (budget shifts, additional shipments, alternate channels).
Brands will move from “we set the promo and wait” to “the promo is alive and responsive.”

2. Trade spend becomes part of the autonomous planning engine

By 2026, trade-spend planning will be integrated with broader supply-chain, demand-planning and retailer-collaboration platforms. AI will optimise promo budget allocation in tandem with logistics, shelf-availability, and channel cost-to-serve. The artificial separation between marketing spend and supply-chain cost will disappear.

3. Retailer-Supplier collaboration gets AI-native

Joint planning between brand and retailer will shift from spreadsheets and PDFs to shared twin-models. In 2026, we’ll see more shared demand twins, co-managed by CPG brands and retailers, with AI recommending the optimal promo mix, pack, and timing for each store-cluster.

4. Smaller SKUs & regional promos get enterprise-grade AI

Historically, only large flagship SKUs or national promos got the analytics treatment. In 2026, AI models will map each local store-cluster, SKU-variant, and regional behaviour. This “long-tail” of promos will be optimised with the same discipline as national campaigns.

5. Measurable shift in KPIs and systems of record

Promo-performance KPIs will evolve:

• Instead of “lift vs baseline”, we’ll track “lift vs dynamic competitive landscape”.
• Instead of “cost per incremental unit”, we’ll track “cost per on-shelf-experience improvement”.
  Systems of record will be live promo-models, not just campaign archives.

Why this matters for CPG Brands

• Margin leverage: As the industry survey by Bain & Company shows, CPG companies are increasingly prioritising tech and AI to differentiate amid slower volume growth. Bain
• Efficiency gains: With AI optimising promo spend and linking it to supply-chain execution, brands will reduce emergency logistics, over-stock, and wasted promotions.
• Retailer partnership advantage: Brands that collaborate with retailers using shared AI models will win better shelf-space, fewer out-of-stocks and higher service levels.
• Competitive precision: As insurgent brands and regional players adopt AI, legacy brands risk losing ground unless they modernise promo planning.

What CPG Leaders Should Do Now — To Be Ready for 2026

1. Invest in live-promo data infrastructure: Ensure promo calendars, retailer-data, inventory flows, POS, digital campaigns are all feeding into a connected system.

2. Deploy pilot for dynamic promo-replanning: Choose one key SKU and retailer; build a system that monitors and triggers mid-promo actions (shipment, channel shift, budget re-allocation).

3. Collaborate with retailers on shared models: Negotiate data-sharing and twin-model frameworks now so you’re ready when the joint systems hit mainstream in 2026.

4. Expand analytics to local SKUs & clusters: Don’t wait for next year’s mega-promo; optimise smaller regional campaigns now with AI.

5. Redefine KPIs and mindset: Move from “plan-execute-review” to “live-adjust-optimise”. Equip your team for real-time decision-making, not just retrospective review.